Widespread ocean-shipping delays have become the new normal in 2026. Only the Asia–US West Coast lane still holds schedule reliability above 50% (at 53.3%); every other major trade route is currently performing below that threshold. Asia–Europe reliability has dropped to 25.3%, Asia–Mediterranean to 29.4%, and major carriers including MSC and PIL are seeing departure reliability under 40%.
The causes compound each other: persistent geopolitical tension, high fuel costs, and the onset of typhoon season are together described as a "perfect storm" expected to keep worsening vessel operations and delays through the coming months.
For shippers, the practical guidance is to prioritize higher-reliability alliances — the Gemini Alliance (Maersk & Hapag-Lloyd) currently leads at over 60% reliability — or premium services like Matson (98% reliability, stable 11-day transit) for cargo that can't absorb delay. Beyond carrier choice, the advice is to stop planning to "best-case" ETAs (add a 1–2 week buffer), carry full insurance against general-average and diversion costs, and diversify across carriers so a single blank sailing or alliance disruption doesn't stall an entire supply chain.
